applying first-order markov chains and spi drought index to monitor and forecast drought in west azerbaijan province of iran
نویسندگان
چکیده
in this paper by using the data related to the monthly precipitation of 13 stations situated in west azerbaijan province of iran in a time period of 34 years, monitoring and forecasting the probability of a drought occurrence is evaluated in next coming months. in this process, first the monthly precipitation amounts for each rainfall station are used in order to calculate the standardized precipitation index (spi) for a time period of 34 years for each station. afterwards, by applying this index, 4 drought classes are defined. at the following, based on the changing style of drought classes in the mentioned time period and for each station, the transition matrix related to that station is derived. the transition matrixes are the main concepts of markov chains for evaluating the studying systems behavior in the future. afterwards, by applying the mentioned transition matrixes the steady state probabilities, the mean recurrence time of each drought class and the expected residence time in each drought class were obtained. the results obtained from evaluating the related data with various stations indicated that shahin dezh and alasaghal tekab stations remain in none drought class for 6.4 months on average. therefore, these two stations are less drought-prone in comparison with other stations in the future. on the other hand, it is expected that the two mentioned stations will remain on average 3.3 months in the severe or extreme drought class.
منابع مشابه
the innovation of a statistical model to estimate dependable rainfall (dr) and develop it for determination and classification of drought and wet years of iran
آب حاصل از بارش منبع تأمین نیازهای بی شمار جانداران به ویژه انسان است و هرگونه کاهش در کم و کیف آن مستقیماً حیات موجودات زنده را تحت تأثیر منفی قرار می دهد. نوسان سال به سال بارش از ویژگی های اساسی و بسیار مهم بارش های سالانه ایران محسوب می شود که آثار زیان بار آن در تمام عرصه های اقتصادی، اجتماعی و حتی سیاسی- امنیتی به نحوی منعکس می شود. چون میزان آب ناشی از بارش یکی از مولفه های اصلی برنامه ...
15 صفحه اولDrought monitoring using deciles index standardized precipitation index and effective Drought index in tehran province iran
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عنوان ژورنال:
international journal of geo science and environmental planningجلد ۱، شماره ۲، صفحات ۴۴-۵۳
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